Murray Hunter
Could a credible third force emerge after Ayer Kuning?
PSM could play a major role by taking enough votes to foster momentum for a third force
Apr 16, 2025
For years, there has been talk of a ‘third force’ in Malaysian politics. People have become very ‘bored’ of the arrogance of UMNO and the loss of hope the Pakatan Harapan government gave during its stint in government between 2018-2020.
Today, people are subjected two a double whammy. A ‘unity government’ composed of both UMNO and Pakatan Harapan. Instead of bringing out the best in each other, as hoped, these groups brought out the worst one could possibly imagine as a government for Malaysia. That’s an opinion held by many on both sides of politics.
The mixture of UMNO and PH is something very toxic in the peninsula.
With the unfortunate death of the sitting member Ishsam Shahruddin of the Perak state assembly seat of Ayer Kuning, the seat is now up for grabs.
Ayer Kuning, with some differences is not much different than the demographics of the peninsula. With approximately 31,600 voters of which 55.64 percent are Malay, 21.99 percent are Chinese, 14.3 percent are Indian, and around 8 percent are Orang Asli, the seat is a fair litmus test of support mid-term of the ‘unity government’. One must make a small qualification here, the Orang Asli are over represented in terms of the peninsula and local issues may arise over the next 10 days that skew the litmus test.
Since the seat was created in 1986, it has always been staunchly pro-UMNO. Even during the Perak State Election in November 2022, where Perikatan Nasional (PN) gained a 29 percent swing in the seat, Ishsam still managed to hold a 2,213 vote majority.
The pundits predict that UMNO should win enough votes to hold the seat, and a win or loss will not affect the standing of the current state government. Mohamad Yusri Bakir is the UMNO candidate and Abdul Muhairmin Malek is the PN candidate. There is an assumption there will be a drift across from previous PH supporters in the seat behind Mohamad Yursi to get him up for UMNO.
However, there are a number of factors that have occurred since the November 2022 Perak state election that may influence the result.
The first is the PH-UMNO coalition in the federal government. The assumption that PH supporters will switch their votes to UMNO is questionable. The second issue is how the ‘unity government’ has treated non-Malays. The third is how disappointed are Chinese in the DAP? And the fourth is how the Hindu temple issue has affected the Indian vote.
A third force
Enter a third force. Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) are fielding Bawani Kaniapan (of listen, listen, listen fame) in the Ayer Kuning byelection. In the 2022 Perak State Election Bawani received 586 votes or 2.5 percent of the aggregate vote.
In the coming byelection there is some instinctive feelings of a change in voter sentiments – be a small change at that.
PSM is now accompanied by MUDA, P Ramasamy’s Urimai, and even Siti Kasim, who ran under the banner of Gerak Independent during the last general election (she is talking to the Orang Asli according to reports).
This might be wishful thinking, rather than hardnose analysis, but the group led by Bawani standing in Ayer Kuning can drastically improve upon her 2.5 percent of the aggregate vote this time around.
Disaffected PH voters may cast a vote for Bawani rather than stay home.
This could dash the hopes of UMNO reclaiming the seat if the protest vote was enough.
This would send a big message to Putra Jaya, if such a scenario occurred.
Many have been disappointed in making such predictions, which might be more hope than rational analysis. However, Ayer Kuning is an opportunity for voters to express their feelings without fear in the byelection. Unfortunately, Malaysia is quickly becoming a nation where people are in fear of publicly expressing their feelings.
A good result for Bawani could go a long way politically. A good result could raise some momentum for a third force that could have future electoral possibilities around northern Perak and Penang. It would be a massive warning for the DAP.
Now its time to wait for the voters’ verdict in Ayer Kuning.